"We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election"

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced today that he would not take part in Zimbabwe’s runoff election for president this Friday.  It turns out that trying to unseat Robert Mugabe, something that Tsvangirai had come very close to doing during the general election nearly three months ago, has simply become too dangerous.

“We can’t ask the people to cast their vote on June 27 when that vote will cost their lives.  We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election,” Tsvangirai said.

The MDC and independent rights groups claim that as many as 85 MDC supporters have been killed in the weeks leading up to the scheduled runoff election.  Mugabe’s government was reluctantly forced to admit that Tsvangirai had gained more votes than Mugabe in the March election but it wasn’t enough for Tsvangirai to win outright, forcing a belatedly-scheduled runoff election between the two and an opportunity for Mugabe’s supporters to organize, threaten, intimidate, and murder those who supported the MDC.  A major MDC rally had been scheduled in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, today but Mugabe’s supporters blocked the assembly preventing it from happening.  Perhaps that was the last straw.

Tsvangirai and his supporters were defeated by a ruthless, heartless tyrant who doesn’t care for one moment about the people that he supposedly liberated nearly thirty years ago. Mugabe’s only concern today seems to be making certain that he dies in office and avoids any possibility of being prosecuted for his multitude of crimes.  He is a huge disgrace but, unlike in years past, other African leaders are starting to take notice. 

Tsvangirai has promised to work with the United Nations, European Union, and the southern African bloc of nations to sort out the mess in Zimbabwe so we should see plenty of interesting developments in the coming days and weeks.  Perhaps Mugabe will be forced out of power in favor of a unity government between the MDC and Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party.  It’s difficult to know at this moment what might happen but something’s got to give.  The tipping point in Zimbabwe has long since passed.

Election results out of Zimbabwe are slow to come...

…which could be a bad sign if Robert Mugabe and his core supporters are cooking up a scheme that will allow the old man to stay in power.  This is yet another moment of truth for African politics. 

Anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that Mugabe has lost the election by a landslide so if he comes out “victorious” it is difficult to say what might happen.

Tense times indeed.  Hopefully we’ll know more soon.

In the meantime, check out this article which ran over the weekend on the National Review Online.

Could Mugabe lose?

I was a bit surprised by this article in the latest issue of the Economist, a publication that is, more often than not, laser sharp about such things.  The notion that Robert Mugabe might actually lose Zimbabwe’s election next week or might decide to step aside seems completely ludicrous.  And Mugabe’s recent changes to the electoral process—allowing police officers into polling stations and requiring a centralized vote-counting system—are the hallmarks of a vote that is about to be stolen.

Maybe it’s the fact that the old man is finally facing some real competition from two relatively viable competitors, including one formerly from his own party, Simba Makoni, and long-time nemesis Morgan Tsvangirai.  But, even if the vote is relatively free and fair, no single candidate will likely receive the necessary majority to win the election without a run-off.  And if and when a run-off election does happen, it would seem highly unlikely that Mugabe wouldn’t use every trick in his devious arsenal to assure that he remains Zimbabwe’s president for life.

Given the dirty tricks that he’s already employing—denying food to his political enemies, using the police to intimidate voters, and rigging the system to set up outright vote tampering, among other things—it seems as if Mugabe might be trying to “win” this election even without a run-off.

One of the saddest chapters in recent African history is that of Zimbabwe. Thanks to the work of one man, Robert Mugabe, that once-prosperous and hopeful nation is suffering from 100,000% inflation, 80% unemployment, food-shortages and utter desperation.  With the possible exception of North Korea, no other place on earth owes such a debt of ingratitude to one person.  He has single-handedly ruined his country and paralyzed Zimbabweans, the very people who he claims to have liberated twenty-eight years ago.  The irony of that, of course, is lost on the old man.

There is certainly hope for Zimbabwe one day soon—Mugabe can’t last forever—but it doesn’t seem likely at all that the tyrant will go down quietly.

“Better half a loaf than no bread”

Sometimes I wish that I wasn’t so cynical about African governments but this quote—which appeared in a story in today’s New York Times—by former Kenyan opposition candidate-turned-Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, makes me nervous.

“Better half a loaf than no bread” just sounds a bit too much like a greedy politician looking for his share of the spoils but, again, perhaps I’m just being harsh.  Still, there is no denying how disappointing it is to see Kenya go from its solidly democratic election of five years ago—an election that provided a forceful mandate for the country’s first new government in a quarter century—to a coalition government made up of two bitter rivals that was forced upon Kenya as a result of clear election fraud and the subsequent violence that resulted from it.

Kenya’s new coalition government can be spun in many positive ways but there is no denying that it is a giant step backward for democracy in the country.

I’m pleased that a resolution to this crisis was reached (although the premiership still must be ratified by two-thirds of Kenya’s parliament.)  And I’m pleased at the seemingly willing attitudes that both Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki have recently shown toward working together for Kenya’s reconciliation and future.  And I’m pleased to hear the details now coming out about how strongly the United States, in particular, pushed Kibaki to resolve the crisis.  But I can’t help but wonder how in the world President Kibaki and his party are supposed to work alongside Prime Minister Odinga and his party?  How are these two politicians who were at each other’s throats only weeks ago realistically going to come together for the good of the Kenyan people?  How could this solution be better than actually having a free and fair election in the first place?  Or redoing the flawed election?

It simply cannot be.  There will be difficulties in Kenya going forward because of this new coalition government and it is almost certain that the people of Kenya will suffer in some way as a result of these difficulties.  While we should all be pleased that the fighting has largely stopped and that the healing and reconciliation can begin in Kenya, beyond those things, this result is a major step backward for Kenya’s democracy, no matter how it gets spun.

Maybe I’m wrong.  Perhaps having a president and a prime minister from different parties is actually the way forward for Kenya.  Who knows?  If that’s the case, maybe John McCain and whoever the Democrats nominate can skip the general election and become the next president and prime minister of the United States.